It is safe to say that no one anticipated that the A-share market, which was heavily bullish during the National Day holiday, would suffer a massive Waterloo after the break. The vast majority of investors saw their account profits retract by at least half within the first four days after the holiday, and some even more! What's more troubling than the retraction of account profits is that after several days of sharp declines, the confidence of many investors has been shaken, which is extremely detrimental to the development of the market in the future!
However, the more in such a market situation, the more we need to remain calm! Just as we warned everyone before the holiday during the surge, no matter how great the good news is, it cannot stimulate the A-share market to fly to the sky without looking back, and a crazy bull market is unsustainable.
Similarly, the large-scale selling of thousands of stocks in a row will not last too long! Even in the previous bear market, there were only slow declines that were difficult to see the bottom, and continuous sharp declines often indicate that a phase bottom may appear. What's more, the environment of the entire market has changed now, and this round of sharp declines is likely to stop and stabilize when the market touches the 10-day line next week!
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From a time cycle perspective, if the market continues to be weak on Monday, it should be able to stop falling on Tuesday or Wednesday!
Under such circumstances, we retail investors cannot be blindly pessimistic now. If we keep handing over our chips in a sharp decline, the result will only be to be slapped in the face by both sides! Only by stepping on the rhythm to buy low and finding the most elastic sectors can we quickly recover in the rebound market after next week!
So, which sectors will become the vanguard of the rebound next week? After a comprehensive analysis of news, fundamentals, capital, and technical aspects, we believe that diversified finance will still be the core main line of the two cities next week! In addition, real estate and autonomous driving in technology stocks have relatively greater short-term elasticity!
First, diversified finance: the biggest beneficiary of the trend reversal in the A-share market!
Although the market before and after the holiday is as different as heaven and earth, it cannot be denied that a large amount of funds from outside the market are pouring into the A-share market during this period, and the daily trading volume of the A-share market has been increased several times. The trading volume has shrunk with the decline of the market in recent days, but it still reached 1.5 trillion yuan on Friday, which is more than three times that of before!
From this, it can also be seen that a considerable number of new investors have entered the market during this period, and a considerable number of old investors have increased their positions, otherwise the trading volume of the entire market would not have increased several times!
It cannot be denied that this round of market has greatly increased the attention to the A-share market, which has never been seen before. Especially some post-90s and post-00s, new investors who have never understood the stock market before, have started to get in touch with the A-share market through this round of market. When the attention to the entire A-share market is greatly increased, the biggest beneficiary is undoubtedly the financial industry. From the top front brokers to the financial IT that provides services for brokers and exchanges, they will all benefit from the warming up of the A-share market.Therefore, as long as the overall market can complete a stop-loss action near the 10-day moving average next week, and can stimulate the inflow of funds from outside the market again, then the heat of the diversified finance sector will not easily dissipate!
In other words, the diversified finance sector is highly resonant with the A-share market. As long as you still believe that the high-level market rescue actions will not start strong and end weak, and you are optimistic that the overall market will achieve a bottom rebound next week, then the short-term trend of diversified finance is worth looking forward to!
Jing Yang believes that diversified finance will become the protagonist of the market next week, not only because the industry's fundamentals are expected to turn around, but also because it has a lot to do with the capital side:
From the perspective of long-term funds, in the main layout direction of broad-based funds, the proportion of financial stocks will not be small, and in the market value management plan of central state-owned enterprises, financial stocks are also an important beneficiary direction. The 500 billion yuan swap facility implemented by the central bank this week involves collateral, which also cannot be without financial stocks.
From the perspective of short-term funds, according to Jing Yang's observation, diversified finance is the direction where institutions and hot money have intervened the most in this round of rebound. Before the holiday, diversified finance was mainly added by hot money, and the intervention of institutions was not too large. However, in the adjustment market after the holiday, institutions and hot money have tacitly synchronized low absorption.
In Jing Yang's view, both of these major funds dare to boldly absorb diversified finance during a sharp decline. In addition to being optimistic about the short-term opportunities of the sector, it also indicates their attitude towards the later trend of the entire market! This point deserves everyone's high attention!
In addition, the theme of diversified finance involves many branches, and not all branch main institutions have been adding positions during this period. According to Jing Yang's observation, before the holiday, the attention of institutions and hot money was focused on internet finance, and the interest in traditional brokers was actually not very large. After the holiday, institutions and hot money gradually shifted their focus to digital currency.
So, if diversified finance rebounds next week, the most elastic sub-direction is likely to be digital currency and internet finance!
Second, unmanned driving: Tesla's first unmanned car is released, and the key node of intelligent driving has arrived!
Unmanned driving is one of the branches of technology stocks with high attention in the A-share market this year. The main catalyst is the previous Wuhan radish quick run, with the daily order volume approaching that of traditional taxis, indicating that the commercialization of unmanned driving has significantly accelerated! After that, the entire market's attention to unmanned driving has also significantly increased!This week, although autonomous driving also experienced a rise and fall along with the market, the unusual changes in news and capital still deserve our attention!
From the perspective of news, Tesla will hold a "Robotaxi Day" event at the Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California, on Friday of this week. This press conference will officially introduce Tesla's Robotaxi product.
Yesterday, the new product launch event successfully concluded, with Tesla CEO Elon Musk making an appearance in Tesla's autonomous taxi, Cybercab. This Cybercab features double gull-wing doors, only two seats inside the car, and the introduction of inductive charging technology, eliminating the steering wheel and pedals.
According to Elon Musk's design, Cybercab will change the way people travel in the future. When the owner does not need the car, Cybercab will play the role of a taxi, going on the road to pick up orders by itself. This can not only greatly improve the utilization rate of the vehicle but also allow the owner to receive returns.
It is worth noting that at the event site, Tesla also unveiled the Robovan model for the first time. This car can carry more than 20 people and can transport goods.
In response, some institutional investors have said that Tesla's press conference may become a catalyst for the autonomous driving industry to go from 1 to N, bringing overall investment opportunities. With the decline in costs and technological iteration, the penetration rate of intelligent driving is expected to gradually increase, and the industry chain is also expected to usher in rapid development.
From the perspective of capital, one or two trading days before this new product launch event, institutions and hot money began to lurk into the big theme of autonomous driving. Especially on the second trading day after the holiday, October 9th, when the entire market was plummeting, a hot money giant secretly entered two ride-hailing concept stocks, which is the main direction previously speculated in autonomous driving. On the same day, institutional funds significantly increased their positions in another branch of the autonomous driving theme, the Internet of Vehicles, which was previously the second hottest branch in the autonomous driving theme.
From this, it can be seen that the core direction in the autonomous driving theme is no longer automotive parts, but ride-hailing and the Internet of Vehicles!
Jingyang believes that these two directions will become the focus of the A-share market next week! Among them, diversified finance will become the core main line in the near future, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize ahead of the entire market next week! In terms of strategy, as long as the sector index can stand firm around the 10-day line at the beginning of next week, it can be used as a low absorption entry point around the 10-day line!
In the direction of autonomous driving, there was a decline on Friday, indicating that the short-selling momentum within the sector has not been fully released, and the probability of inertial decline next Monday is still relatively large. However, considering that many institutions and hot money entered on October 9th, the large funds that entered that day are currently in a state of being trapped. Therefore, there is a high probability that there will be self-rescue actions when the sector falls. So if the sector index falls back to the 10-day line with support, it can also be considered for low absorption.In addition to these two sectors, the short-term trend of real estate stocks is also worth paying attention to! Many investors do not have a good perception of real estate stocks, which is greatly related to the fundamentals of the sector. However, looking at the short-term market, real estate stocks, like diversified finance, are also beneficiaries of broad-based, central state-owned enterprise market value management plans, and the central bank's 5000 swap facility. In addition, recent trading data also shows that both institutions and speculative capital have increased their positions in real estate stocks, although the increase is not as strong as in diversified finance.
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